When the Phoenix Suns visit the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center on November 18, 2025, it won’t just be another midseason NBA game — it’ll be a betting goldmine. With both teams among the league’s fastest-paced offenses and porous defenses, the stage is set for a wild, high-scoring affair. And according to multiple sports analysts, the smart money isn’t just on who wins — it’s on how many points they’ll score together.
Why This Game Is a Betting Playground
The Phoenix Suns (9-6) come into this game riding a wave of momentum — seven wins in eight games before their narrow two-point loss to Atlanta, where they surrendered 47 points in the final quarter. Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers (6-9) are reeling: 1-4 in their last five games, 1-4 against the spread, and 2-6 on the road ATS. But here’s the twist — their offense is scorching hot. Portland averages 120.7 points per game, the second-highest in the league, while Phoenix allows 114.1. Combine that with Portland’s 121.5 points per game at home, and you’ve got a recipe for chaos.
The over/under line sits between 235.5 and 237.5 across major sportsbooks, but the numbers don’t lie: the two teams combine for an average of 240.3 points per game. That’s 2.8 points above the highest line. And it’s not a fluke. The Portland Trail Blazers have gone over the total in eight of their last 13 games. The Suns? They’ve hit the over in 24 of their last 40 games, especially strong in the fourth quarter. This isn’t about luck — it’s about system.
The Four Expert-Backed Bets
ClutchPoints, the sports analytics arm of Sports Illustrated, laid out four key wagers for this matchup — and they’re not just random guesses. Each is rooted in data, trends, and player tendencies.
- Toumani Camara 19+ Points + Rebounds: The Trail Blazers’ 6’8” forward has quietly become a Swiss Army knife. In his last five games, he’s averaged 18.4 points and 8.9 rebounds. With Portland’s offense running through him in the half-court, and Phoenix struggling to guard versatile bigs, hitting this prop feels less like a gamble and more like a forecast.
- Devin Booker Under 29.5 Points: Yes, you read that right. Booker’s averaging 27.8 points this season, but he’s cooled off in the last three games — scoring 24, 22, and 26. Portland’s defense, while weak overall, has been better at forcing perimeter players into tough shots. And Booker’s been playing heavy minutes — 36.2 per game — with fatigue setting in after a grueling stretch.
- Suns/Blazers Over 237.5 Points: This is the consensus play. FOX Sports’ analyst notes the Blazers have gone over 237.5 in eight of 13 games. The Suns? They’ve cleared 120 points in 10 of their last 14. With both teams playing at the NBA’s sixth and seventh-fastest paces, and neither willing to slow down, the over feels inevitable.
- Suns +2.5 Spread: Even though the Blazers are favored, the line is generous. BetMGM’s simulation model gives the Suns a 62.2% chance to cover — higher than their win probability. Why? Because Phoenix has covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 away games, with a 46% ROI. They’ve also hit the 4Q spread in 11 of 14 road games. This isn’t a fluke — it’s a pattern.
Why the Moneyline Is a Trap
It’s tempting to bet the Trail Blazers’ moneyline at -140. After all, they’re favored, and public betting is 57% on Portland. But here’s what the numbers won’t tell you: the Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five. Their offense is explosive, but their defense is a sieve — they allow 122.5 points per game, the worst in the league. The Suns, meanwhile, are 8-1 in the 3Q moneyline, and their late-game resilience is legendary. In their last nine games, they’ve won the third quarter 8 times. That’s not luck. That’s coaching.
And then there’s the real outlier: Deni Avdija. The Blazers’ 6’9” forward has scored 26+ points in six of his last seven games. He’s the engine of Portland’s offense now — especially with Anfernee Simons out. But even Avdija can’t carry a team that’s lost four straight and gives up 122 points a night. The Suns’ depth — especially off the bench — is too much for Portland’s thin rotation.
What This Means for the NBA Landscape
This game isn’t just about betting lines — it’s a microcosm of the modern NBA. Fast pace. High volume. Weak defense. The league is trending toward shootouts, and this matchup is a textbook example. The Suns’ ability to cover the spread on the road, even against better teams, suggests they’re becoming a late-game powerhouse. Meanwhile, Portland’s reliance on scorers like Avdija and Jusuf Nurkić — without consistent defensive structure — makes them a dangerous but unreliable team.
If the Suns cover +2.5, it’ll be their 12th cover in 15 away games this season. If the over hits, it’ll be the 10th time this season Portland clears 237.5 points. That’s not coincidence. That’s evolution. And for bettors, it’s a rare opportunity where the numbers align with the narrative.
What’s Next?
The next five games for both teams are critical. The Suns face the Warriors, Mavericks, and Lakers in a brutal stretch. The Blazers have home games against the Lakers and Clippers. If Portland continues to lose ATS and the Suns keep covering, expect the line on their next meeting — likely in Phoenix in January — to swing even more in Phoenix’s favor. For now, the smart play isn’t picking a winner. It’s picking the total points — and the underdog that won’t quit.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Suns +2.5 spread considered a strong bet despite being the underdog?
The Suns have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 away games, with a 46% ROI — one of the best road ATS records in the NBA. Their fourth-quarter performance is especially strong, having covered the 4Q spread in 11 of 14 away games. Even when they lose, they keep it close — and BetMGM’s model gives them a 62.2% chance to cover, higher than their win probability.
Is the over/under of 237.5 points a safe bet?
Yes — and here’s why: the two teams combine for 240.3 points per game on average, well above the line. Portland has gone over 237.5 in 8 of 13 games this season, while Phoenix has hit the over in 24 of 40 games overall. Both teams rank in the top 7 in pace, and neither has a top-20 defense. The over is statistically supported, not just a hunch.
Why is Devin Booker being bet under 29.5 points?
Booker’s averaging 27.8, but he’s cooled off in his last three games (24, 22, 26), and Portland’s defense, while weak, forces perimeter players into tougher shots. He’s also played 36+ minutes in 11 of his last 12 games — fatigue is a factor. Plus, Portland’s frontcourt, led by Avdija and Nurkić, can clog driving lanes, limiting his efficiency. Under 29.5 is a value play based on recent trends, not just averages.
How reliable is Toumani Camara’s 19+ Points + Rebounds prop?
Camara’s averaged 18.4 points and 8.9 rebounds in his last five games — just shy of the 19-point/rebound mark. With Portland’s offense running through him in the half-court and Phoenix’s bigs struggling to match his mobility, he’s a perfect fit for this prop. He’s hit 19+ points and rebounds in three of his last five, and with Portland needing volume from role players, this bet has a 60%+ probability of hitting.
What’s the biggest risk in betting on this game?
The biggest risk is over-relying on the moneyline. Portland is favored, but they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five and 2-6 on the road ATS. The Suns may lose by 3 or 4 points — and still cover. Also, if Booker explodes for 35+ points, the under and Camara prop could both miss. But the over and spread are the safer plays — they’re backed by team trends, not individual heroics.
How do injuries affect this game?
Portland’s Anfernee Simons is out, which elevates Deni Avdija’s role — he’s scored 26+ in six of seven games. Phoenix has no major injuries, but Kevin Durant is managing minutes after returning from a hamstring issue. That means Phoenix’s bench — especially Camara and Jalen Smith — will play heavier roles, increasing the chance of the over and Camara’s prop hitting.
